Analysis of the Relationship between Sunspot Averages and (Temperature and Rainfall) in the Cities of Misurata and Gharyan from 1945 to 2022

Abstract

The study aimed to analyze the relationship between average sunspot numbers and monthly temperature and precipitation in the coastal city of Misrata and the mountainous city of Gharyan over the period 1945–2022, taking into account differences in geographic location and surface characteristics. A comparative analytical approach was adopted to examine monthly temperature and precipitation records using statistical methods, including trend and correlation analyses, lagged time-series techniques, and cycle detection methods. The findings revealed marked fluctuations in sunspot numbers, reflecting the cyclical nature of solar activity, along with an overall tendency toward a relative decline in recent decades. The results also indicated a weak statistical association between sunspot numbers and precipitation in both cities. In contrast, a statistically significant negative relationship was identified between sunspot numbers and summer temperatures in Gharyan, with a correlation coefficient of -0.244 (p = 0.001) and an estimated time lag of approximately two months, indicating a weak but highly significant inverse relationship. Meanwhile, in Misrata, the lagged response of winter temperatures extended to three months, showing a weak positive correlation of 0.122 (p = 0.06), which was not statistically significant. These results confirm 

that the influence of sunspot numbers on climatic variables varies spatially and temporally according to local geographic characteristics, and that their role remains secondary compared with regional climatic factors.