Russian–Turkish Competition in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Analysis of Geopolitical Dimensions and Future Developments

Abstract

The study aimed to identify and analyze the strategic motives behind Russian and Turkish influence in sub-Saharan Africa, examine their areas of competition, and highlight their similarities and differences. It also sought to provide a future-oriented analysis of their influence in the region. Given the nature of the topic, the comparative, descriptive, and historical methods were used. The study concluded that both Russian and Turkish influence are on the rise in sub-Saharan Africa, capitalizing on the decline of traditional Western powers. Russia primarily relies on military and security tools to assert control over strategic resources, while Turkey employs a more comprehensive strategy combining diplomacy, economic investment, and soft power, leveraging its shared Islamic and cultural heritage with many in the region. Despite their differing approaches, the rivalry remains pragmatic, with both countries avoiding direct conflict. It is expected that this pattern of competition will continue, without escalating into a direct confrontation in sub-Saharan Africa in the foreseeable future.